For those who only look at headlines, today’s payrolls report was a veritable shock: coming in at 467K, it was almost 4x the consensus median expectation of 125K, and was orders of magnitude above Goldman’s forecast of -250K. Putting the stunning, 3-sigma beat in context, it came above all 78 estimates, and was more than double the highest forecast of 225K from HSBC. Even more ludicrous were historical adjustments which saw December increased from 199K to 510K, November from 249K to 647K and so on…
BLS Cooks Books to Generate January Jobs Report That No One Believes, for Good Reason…
There really isn’t an adequate way to encapsulate what the Bureau of Labor and Statistics has done with their reported January jobs result [Main Data Here]. If you want a deep weeds review of the actuarial scheme deployed READ THIS ARTICLE…
Shocking Fact in Today’s Job Report: Employment Stalls…
Today’s employment report shows a robust increase of 227,000 jobs. The good news stops there. The rest of the report was horrific. The big news is in employment where the three-month trend worsened. In the last three months, employment has only risen by a grand total of 33,000. Employment in January declined by 30,000. For […]