The Dept. of Labor released weekly unemployment data showing an additional 2.1 million workers filed new unemployment compensation claims last week; bringing the total claims to over 40 million since the Wuhan virus mitigation effort shut down the U.S. economy. However, there is some good news within the data. The “continuing claims”, meaning those who […]
First Quarter GDP Drops 4.8% Amid COVID-19 Shutdown…
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) advanced estimate and the result is a 4.8% decline in economic activity. The revised fourth quarter GDP shows the economy was growing at 2.1 percent prior to the COVID-19 shutdown. The severity of the change in GDP reflects a severe drop […]
OPINION: Here’s Why the Soft GDP Report Is a Head Fake and the Economy Actually Had Its Best Growth in a Year…
Contrary to what you may read elsewhere, the U.S. economy did not slump in the second quarter of the year. True, real gross domestic product slowed to a 2.1% annual pace from 3.1% in the first quarter, but as I’ve reported before, GDP is a poor measure of the economy’s health over the short or […]
Advance Estimate for Q1 2019 GDP Beats Forecast at Solid 3.2%…
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “advance” estimate for first quarter (Q1) 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) came in at a 3.2% seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Real GDP rose 2.2% in Q4 2018 and by 2.2% in Q1 2018. The consensus forecast was calling for a more moderate but still solid 2.3% SAAR. *Chart will […]
Are Republican Tax Cuts to Blame for Soaring Budget Deficits?…
It wasn’t said directly, of course, but the U.S. Treasury officially reported something Monday that, depending on your political party of choice, you’ve either long suspected would happen or refused to admit was possible: Last year’s big tax cut bill significantly increased the federal budget deficit. According to the Monthly Treasury Statement for fiscal 2018, […]
Atlanta Fed Raises GDP View to 4.2 Percent on Strong Economic Data…
The U.S. economy is expanding at a 4.2 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Wednesday, following the release of the latest data on producer prices and wholesale trade. That was a tad faster than the 4.1 percent pace calculated on Oct. 5 by the Atlanta […]
Trump’s Economic Scorecard: 18 Months Into His Presidency…
The first estimate for June quarter’s GDP growth was released Friday morning, showing growth of 4.1%. This was a solid increase from the 2.2% first quarter print, but a little short of most projections. To smooth out any one quarter’s spike or drop, the U.S. economy grew 2.9% on a trailing four quarter basis, matching […]
Atlanta Fed Forecasts Second Quarter GDP to Hit 4.5 Percent, Down from 4.7 Percent…
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. […]
Atlanta Fed: Q2 GDP Estimate Rises to 4.8% from 4.6%…
“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.8 percent on June 14, up from 4.6 percent on June 8,” the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta said in its latest GDPNow report on Thursday. After this morning’s retail sales release from the U.S. Census […]
Atlanta Fed Boosts Second Quarter GDP Forecast to 4.8%…
The forecast has been climbing higher following the release of a series of good economic data. On May 25, the measure foresaw four percent GDP growth. This rose to 4.7 percent Thursday and ticked even higher on Friday following the better than expected jobs report for May. The Atlanta Fed forecasts a big boost in […]