The yield curve is first and foremost predicting the outlook for Fed policy rather than the next recession. My research has confirmed this conclusion, as does a recent Fed study. In my recent book, Predicting the Markets, I wrote: “The Yield Curve Model is based on investors’ expectations of how the Fed will respond to […]
Nomura: “BOOM, Roasted: The Fed’s “Clown Car” Experiment Is Now Complete”…
In the aftermath of the Fed’s second consecutive dovish capitulation, which while framed as a response to the slowing economy (a slowdown which the Fed completely missed as recently as December when 9 FOMC officials expected 1 or more rate hikes and now expect 0) but was really meant to support assets, many have taken […]
“Fed Returns To The Punchbowl”…
Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth…
Study: Ben Bernanke Killed the World Economy…
This column has contended for several years, based on empirical data observations from several countries, that low interest rates worldwide were killing productivity growth. A University of Chicago paper finally provides some academic back-up for this contention and suggests a mechanism through which it takes place. There are other mechanisms also, and I would suggest […]
Here We Go: Fed “Finds” That Negative Rates Would Have Helped the Recovery
Several days ago, the ECB sparked the ire of pretty much anyone with a working frontal lobe when it made the indefensible claim that, drumroll, QE had helped reduce inequality. ECB asset purchases have reduced inequality in the eurozone, our research shows. They have especially benefited low-income households, which suffer the most from unemployment. That’s […]
Here Are the Biggest Stock Winners on the Day the Fed Went Soft on Interest Rates…
Investors probably weren’t surprised when the Federal Open Market Committee decided not to raise the target federal funds rate on Wednesday, however, a softening of language helped cause a rally for stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.77% jumped 435 points, or 1.8% to close at 25,014.86, while the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.55% […]
“Patient” Fed Capitulates to Market, Surprises with Unexpected Balance Sheet Unwind Adjustment…
With a 1% probability of a rate-hike today, all that matters is The Fed’s tone (better be uber dovish) and any language shifts on the balance sheet normalization. And, by the looks of things, the now “patient” Fed capitulated to both Trump and the market: “In light of global economic and financial developments and muted […]
Three Concerns Hanging Over the Davos Elite by Nomi Prins…
This week, the global elite descended private jets to their version of winter ski-camp – the lifestyles of the rich and powerful version. The World Economic Forum’s (WEF) five-day annual networking extravaganza kicked off in the upscale ski resort town of Davos, Switzerland. Every year, the powers-that-be join the WEF, select a theme, uniting some […]
“Once a Caver, Always a Caver” – Not Who You Think…
Remember the Powell of last year? You know, the one that tried to convince us that there “could be no macroeconomic stability without financial stability?” And this Powell was not concerned about financial stability in terms of making sure the stock market never went down, but rather just the opposite. On June 20th, 2018 Powell […]
- « Previous Page
- 1
- …
- 35
- 36
- 37
- 38
- 39
- …
- 49
- Next Page »