Editor’s note: Saw this post by @ElectionWizard on this NYT’s Poll: “Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions. And while women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.
Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.”
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by Sundance at The Conservative Treehouse
Much is being made of the New York Times/Siena poll of background states [Full Poll DATA HERE]. Indeed, the professional Democrats are apoplectic with the results, and the deeper you dig into the poll the worse it looks for Joe Biden.
(NYT) – Trump leads Biden in five of the six states — Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Michigan — which would likely be enough to give him the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Biden leads in the sixth state, Wisconsin. Trump leads by at least four percentage points in each of the other five states:
[NYT Article Link] – [ Crosstabs Link ]
Extending the results, if the election were held today, President Trump would win over 300 electoral votes. However, lesser discussed is the structure of the race that is specific to MAGAnomics and President Trump. Within the poll, President Trump is carrying the largest coalition of support amid black Democrats (22%) and Latinos (40%) in Republican history. This is very unique to President Trump and not transferable to any other Republican candidate.
Within that reality, you find the reason for Politico [SEE HERE] and David Axelrod [SEE HERE] to sound the alarms. “Not ‘bed-wetting,’” but legitimate concern, Axelrod wrote, as he simultaneously suggested that Joe Biden drop out of the race. Axelrod says, “the stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore. Only @JoeBiden can make this decision,” he continued. “If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”
As noted by Politico:…
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