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April 11, 2023 at 12:07 pm

Ukraine SitRep: Leaked Briefings, Holding Roads, Split Training…

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by Bernhard at Moon of Alabama

Apparently some briefing documents about the war in Ukraine for the Joint Chief of Staff of the U.S. military were leaked on the internets. I have so far only seen five pages of those. The total number is supposed to be 53 or 56 pages. If anyone knows where I can find decent copies please let me know in the comments.

I was cautious after the first release was discussed in major U.S. media. The first batch was used to demonstrate that the U.S. is allegedly successfully spying on Russia. I therefore thought that the whole release might be a disinformation campaign. However a second round of files discussed in the media over the last days paints a different picture.

Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism has decent roundup about them:

Again, recall the New York Times was the first MSM outlet to discuss that what turned out to be the first of (so far) two groups of Pentagon slides, focused on Ukraine preparedness, had made their way to a Russian Telegram account. Some had argued that the first set was a US or Russian psyop, but the authenticity of jargon and the amount of unflattering information argued against it. The second batch extends beyond Ukraine and is perceived to be damaging to US interests.Mind you, as many war-watchers have pointed out, these revelations don’t appear likely to have much impact on the too-widely-anticipated Ukraine offensive. While the level of detail is tantalizing, the broad findings, like Ukraine’s air defenses have been depleted and are only going to get worse, were evident via open sources. Yet some of the claims are bizarre, like 97% of Russia’s forces being committed to Ukraine. Recall UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said that in February, and appeared to be retailing Ukraine propaganda then. Did Wallace get that factoid from these documents?

Nevertheless, this breach will make the US clamp down on distribution of sensitive information, which won’t be helpful so close to the launch of the expected counter-offensive.
…
At least one slide in this second group bore the label “Secret/NoForn,” which means distribution is limited to US citizens. That would seem to rule out our notion, based on the first batch (widely distributed among US allies, including Ukraine) that a Ukrainian unhappy with how the war is being conducted could have been behind the leak. This marking suggests these documents came from a Pentagon source, which could include contractors.

The page below shows the timetable for training and equipping nine new brigades…

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