by Barak Ravid at AXIOS
The new Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine would grant Russia parts of eastern Ukraine it does not currently control, in exchange for a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine and Europe against future Russian aggression, a U.S. official with direct knowledge told Axios.
Why it matters: Ukraine and its backers would see that as an enormous concession to Russia. The White House view, according to the U.S. official, is that Ukraine is likely to lose the territory anyways if the war continues and “therefore it is in Ukraine’s interest to reach a deal now.”
Breaking it down: The two thorniest issues in the Ukraine talks up to now have been who will control what territory once the war is over, and how Ukraine can be assured that Russia won’t simply resume the war at a later date.
- The 28-point Trump plan calls for Russia to gain full de facto control of Luhansk and Donetsk (together referred to as the Donbas), despite Ukraine still controlling around 14.5% of the territory there, per the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War.
- Despite being under Russian control, the areas in Donbas from which Ukraine would withdraw would be considered a demilitarized zone, with Russia not able to position troops there.
- In two other war-torn regions, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the current lines of control…