by Bernhard at Moon of Alabama
In February 2025 the U.S. started talks with Russia over ending the war in Ukraine. The Europeans were against such talks. They were still dreaming of winning the lost war – of keeping control over Ukraine by providing it with security guarantees.
The Trump administration gave them a lecture in form of a catalog of questions. As I summarized the issue at that time:
The U.S. has recognized that there aren’t enough troops, money or will to achieve a better negotiation position for what’s left of Ukraine. The European ‘elite’ still fails to get that.
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There are still dreams of ‘security guarantees’ which would be given to Ukraine after it files for peace or surrenders.No such guarantees would make any sense. When peace is achieved there will be only one manner that can prevent a new outbreak of war: good behavior towards Russians and Russia by what will be left of Ukraine.
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The U.S. negotiation team handed the Europeans a list of questions that will hopefully help them to come to grips with that ..
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Here are the questions with answers by me in Italic:1) What do you view as a Europe-backed security guarantee or assurance that would serve as a sufficient deterrent to Russia while also ensuring this conflict ends with an enduring peace settlement?There is no Europe-backed guarantee possible that would be a ‘sufficient deterrent’.
2) Which European and/or third countries do you believe could or would participate in such an arrangement?
Each could provide a few dozen soldiers (plus rotations). None has the size of forces and/or stamina to really commit to the mission.
Are there any countries you believe would be indispensable?
The U.S. – if it would give nuclear guarantees to prevent the eventual annihilation of any ‘security guarantee’ force.
Would your country be willing to deploy its troops to Ukraine as part of a peace settlement?
No!
3) If third country military forces were to be deployed to Ukraine as part of a peace arrangement, what would you consider to be the necessary size of such a European-led force?
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The purpose and point of the six questions the U.S. gave to the Europeans was to induce some realist thinking:
Applying such one will come to the conclusion that nothing but a long term peace agreement, which does not necessitate ‘guarantees’, makes any sense.
But they still did not get it.
It took the Europeans seven month of highly publicized discussion to finally acknowledge that there was no way..
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