by The Saker at The Saker
Today, I want to begin with a small allegorical story.
One upon a time, there was a bear sleeping in his lair and minding his business. One day, a small group of rodents decided to have some fun time pestering the bear. So they began running around, making a lot of noise (some even dared the bear to come out and fight them) and even threw colorful little pebbles at the bear. The bear mostly ignored them hoping they would eventually tire from that silly behavior and go away. But the rodents not only stayed, they began pelting the bear with even more pebbles and, sure enough, what had to happen happened: one pebble (with “ridiculous genocide claim” written on it) landed right on the eyelid of the bear and that *really* pissed the bear off. He finally got up, moved to the entrance of his lair and looked at the scurrying rodents. The bear wondered, what shall he do with these little rodents next? The rodents wondered about the same thing. And so they told the bear that if he dares leave his lair, they will pelt him with even more pebbles, so he better not move. What do you think the bear will do next?
***
Yesterday Putin gave a quite amazing (and short) press conference. Not only did he declare that Russia recognizes the LDNR Republics in their own, legal, borders (i.e. the full Donetsk and Lugansk regions), he also listed the four steps needed to be taken by the Ukraine to avoid a direct, unilateral, Russian action:
- The Ukraine must recognize Crimea and Sevastopol as Russian territory
- The Ukraine must officially renounce joining NATO
- The Ukraine must negotiate a settlement with the LDNR Republics
- The Ukraine must be demilitarized and declared neutral
This is clearly an ultimatum, but this time, to the authorities in Kiev.
Now a few simple comments:
Since Russia has recognized the LDNR in their original, administrative, regional borders, this means that all the Ukie forces between the current Line of Contact (LOC) and the borders between the original borders of the LDNR are now de facto and de jure a foreign occupying force on the territory of a Russian ally which Russia promised to protect.
Just ponder the implications of that for a while, let it sink in: until yesterday, the Ukronazi forces were on their own territory, at least legally speaking. Now they are abroad and unwelcome.
Quite logically, several DNR and LNR officials have now demanded that Kiev withdraw these forces completely from the LDNR territory. As a small carrot, LDNR officials have said that if the Ukies retreat voluntarily there will be no further action taken. Conversely, that means that if the Ukies stay, the LDNR will do what is needed to make them leave.
That is an LDNR ultimatum to Kiev.
In plain English this means this:
- Putin has demanded that the Ukronazi forces immediately stop their attacks
- The LDNR has demanded that the Ukronazi forces immediately withdraw from all the territories the LDNR claims, and Russia recognizes, as belonging to the LDNR
Some LDNR official have offered this: stop the shelling, move at least your heavy force away from the LOC as you are supposed to under the ceasefire agreements and we won’t move our forces in. In other words, if the Ukies move out, the LDNR forces will stay out, but the territory vacated by the Ukies will become legally LDNR’s.
Since there is exactly zero chance that the Nazis in Kiev will accept, what does that tell you about the next move by the LDNR and, possibly, Russia?
Does anybody still seriously believe that Putin is bluffing?…
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