by Bernhard at Moon of Alabama
In early September Gallup did a survey in Ukraine:
More than six months into a war that many around the world (including Russia) thought Ukraine would lose quickly, most Ukrainians are resolved to keep fighting.A clear majority — 70% of all Ukrainians interviewed in early September — say their country should continue fighting until it wins the war with Russia. Just over one in four (26%) favor negotiating to end it as soon as possible.
That 70% poll number is likely the high point as it came at a time that promised Ukrainian successes.
The situation for Ukraine has since gotten worse. Much worse.
Since mid September the Ukrainian counter offensive east of Kharkov has come to a halt. Despite serious Ukrainian losses the counter offensive in the southern Kherson direction has likewise not moved a lot. Both of these front lines are now stable. On the Donbas front the central Ukrainian position in Bakhmut (Artyomovsk in Russian) is in danger of being overrun.
Russia has mobilized some 220,000 reservists and some 70,000 volunteers. These are now in training and by next month most of them will be able to join the fight. The weather in recent weeks has become more rainy. Tanks and trucks can no longer move over open fields without risking to get stuck. In late November/December frost will set in. The ground will freeze and Russia will be able to launch large attacks.
Russia has also changed the war’s rhythm. While it had so far refrained from hitting civilian infrastructure, aside from electrical transformer stations serving the railroad network, it has now launched attacks on thermal power stations and Ukraine’s 330 kilovolt long range electrical distribution network.
bigger
The Russian attacks are effective:…
Continue Reading