by Clea Caulcutt at Politico
The relief felt by supporters of French President Emmanuel Macron as election results rolled in late Sunday has been short-lived.
While the incumbent beat far-right leader Marine Le Pen in the first round of voting in the presidential election Sunday, with 27.6 percent versus her 23.4 percent, much could still change by the head-to-head second-round vote in two weeks.
While the fight is a repeat of the 2017 runoff, which then-political newcomer Macron won easily, Le Pen this time has a plan for success — although polls still point to Macron winning reelection for a second five-year term.
Le Pen’s campaign team hopes that France’s changing political landscape — the mainstream center-right and center-left parties have been virtually obliterated — and hostility toward Macron as the incumbent will help take her to the Elysée.
As Macron and Le Pen now scramble to pick up the votes of their unsuccessful first-round rivals, the far-right National Rally leader will be hoping that the so-called cordon sanitaire — which in the past saw voters sometimes hold their nose and vote for a candidate they didn’t support just to keep the far right from winning — may be weakening.
According to her supporters, Le Pen also goes into this second round race better prepared, with a stronger campaign and with plenty of untapped votes to draw on.
“Yesterday something happened. People realized that Macron can be beaten,” said Gilles Pennelle, a National Rally regional councillor. “We can beat Macron because another term for him would be a disaster for the French people and because we can show we are credible and capable of running the country.”
According to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, Le Pen could win 47 percent of the vote in the April 24 runoff, and one poll taken after the first round results showed Macron edging reelection by the slimmest of margins, by 51 percent to 49 percent.
Could it be third time lucky for Le Pen?
“The polling now doesn’t mean that’s how people are going to vote in 15 days,” said Jean-Daniel Lévy, pollster for Harris Interactive. “There’s a second round campaign to come, a TV debate. Things are still going to shift.”
Le Pen’s early bets…
Politico’s complete coverage of the elections in France over the weekend can be found HERE.
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