Major Military and Political Developments and Major Risks Next…

by Andrei at The Saker

First, the biggest news of the day: the city of Izium fell to the Russian forces.  Here is a map with Izium (Изюм) on the top and then two sets of arrows: the red ones show how the operational cauldron in the east of the Ukraine can be locked along the Lozovaia-Pavlograd while the black one shows the same option, but much closer to the surrounded Ukronazi forces along an Izium-Pokrovsk axis.

Which of the two happens first does not matter because the outcome is the same: Izium was the linchpin of the entire Ukie disposition and the last city to create not just a free fire zone in the slowly shrinking bottleneck for the Ukies to escape, but also the city which was defended by the best Ukrainian forces (the 81st UAF brigade).

Boris Rozhin (from whom I took the 2nd map) had this to say about what this means:

In the evening, reports came that our forces kicked the AFU out of Izyum (although there are reports that there is still some resistance in the southern districts of the city), where a part of the 81st brigade of the AFU defended in the city, which retreated from the city and is now covering it with artillery and mortars. The positions of the AFU were actively covered by aviation. Izyum is of decisive importance for the entire northern part of the AFU grouping in the Donbas.  The highway has been cut (now with ends) Kharkiv-Izyum. Control over Izyum creates prerequisites for an offensive towards Slavyansk from the northwest.  In addition, controlling Izyum, there are opportunities to attack Pavlograd and Barvenkovo, with further cutting of the Donetsk-Pavlograd highway, control over which will lead to a full operational encirclement of all AFU forces in the Donbas.

I full concur with this analysis.  For all practical purposes that cauldron was about 80% closed “by fire” for a few days already, this time it will be closed by Russian/LDNR forces meeting each other somewhere in that big no mans land between Pavlograd and Donetsk.

There is also major combat actions happening along the south front, again, I will begin with a map:

The black line is the shape of the cauldron which the Russians apparently intend to lock around the Odessa region.  I did not color the entire Ukie coastline in black, because I assume that it is currently under fire from the Russian Aerospace forces and the Black Sea Fleet.  According to at least one video I saw yesterday, it looks like the Black Sea Fleet’s Large Amphibious Assault ships are now within visual range of Odessa.  At the end of that envelopment Russia will have full control of the entire coastline from Dniester еstuary (or even from the Romanian border) to the Russian region of Rostov-on-the-Don!

A Mini Banderastan next?

Banderastan will now become a landlocked “country”!

This western region is where all the western weapons and the international Nazi brigades are being concentrated right now.  Some estimates say that the force levels defending this territory might be as high as 100’000 soldiers.    Keep in mind that the highway between Kiev and Zhitomir has been cut off by Russian forces and that except for small roads Kiev is slowly being encircled.

Whether Russia will bother with this region or not will largely depend on the West.

Right now the West has declared total informational and economic war on Russia.  Furthermore, the USA has a long experience in creating “special pockets” from which to attack a country.

Finally, I would not exclude a NATO movement into the western Ukraine to “protect” the “innocent civilians” and “refugees fleeing the Russian massacres” being “murdered en masse” by the “indiscriminate bombing” by “Putin’s hordes”.

The rather pathetic zig-zags about “yes we will deliver fighters to the Ukraine” and “no we won’t deliver fighters to the Ukraine” seems to suggest that there are still a few folks left at Mons and the Pentagon who understand the risks of such a trick.  They also must realize the futility of the entire concept (militarily speaking, this entire plan is absolutely ridiculous, do you need me to explain why?).

God willing, Lavrov will be able to get Kuleba to see the situation as it is and that Kuleba will be smart enough to understand that if these negotiations fail, there will be more negotiations in the future, only in even worse circumstances for the Ukies than today’s.

Next, political news.  The Russians have now officially declared all the following countries as “hostile”:

What does this mean?…