by Stephen Bryen at Weapons and Strategy
Don’t expect a ceasefire in Ukraine, despite the buzz now rippling through European capitals and Washington. The reason is simple: there is no incentive for Russia to stop the war.
It is quite true that Vladimir Putin tabled a ceasefire suggestion but a ceasefire would require a political settlement in his view.
There is growing recognition in the United States and in Europe, that Ukraine can’t win its war with Russia. Even pro-Biden administration outlets such as CNBC are talking about a ceasefire. This creates a dilemma from which there is no quick or easy answer.
The dilemma is this: if Ukraine cannot win a war against Russia, what should the US and NATO do next?
One option is to try and get a ceasefire arrangement, hold fake negotiations with Russia, and then resume the fighting after Ukraine trains yet another army and goes on the offensive again.
But Russia won’t buy that bucket of lard,…
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