by Irina Slav at Oil Price
- Just a couple of years ago, some of the biggest names in the oil market could have never imagined the current demand and supply situation.
- BP is now admitting it may have underestimated the world’s thirst for oil.
- The electrification of transport is not undermining demand as quickly as some analysts predicted.
Two years ago, at the height of the pandemic, BP wrote in its annual Energy Outlook that global oil demand had peaked at around 100 million bpd in 2019, and it was only going to go down from then on because of the effects of the pandemic and the accelerated energy transition. Just two years later, BP is admitting it may have underestimated the world’s thirst for oil, although it heroically stuck to its long-term forecast that the electrification of transport will eventually usher in the era of peak oil demand.
Investment banks, meanwhile, foresaw the rebound in demand because it was the natural thing to happen after the pandemic depression caused by all the lockdowns. What they did not foresee—because it is impossible to foresee—was the extent and speed of the rebound.
Goldman Sachs’ Jeffrey Currie recently acknowledged this gap…