by Talal Nahle via IntelSky at X
Updated Strategic Report (Wednesday Night – January 28):
Based on the latest NOTAM file (21:01 UTC), which confirmed the removal of another firing NOTAM (B0055/26), and combined with the unprecedented diplomatic escalation (the European decision) and Tehran’s categorical rejection of Trump’s conditions, we are facing a “total political deadlock.”
Below is the analysis of the “hours preceding the collision”:
1. NOTAM (B0055/26): “Clearing” the Backyard
* The Event: The expiration/removal of the firing NOTAM (B0055/26) on schedule (this evening).
* Military Significance: Just as occurred previously with the Kerman NOTAM, Iran is concluding subsidiary drills to consolidate all forces into the remaining “Red Zones”: Jask (A0358), Bushehr (A0271), and the Prohibited Area (OID73).
* The Focus: There is no longer any training activity to divert attention. Every Iranian artillery barrel is now pointed toward the sea, awaiting the expiration of the Jask NOTAM deadline tomorrow, Thursday.
2. The European Decision: “Delegitimization” Before Bombing
The consensus among all EU nations to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a “terrorist organization” is the political cover Washington has been waiting for.
* Implication: Europe is implicitly stating: “We will not object to strikes on IRGC headquarters because we consider them terrorists.” This removes any diplomatic obstacle regarding the participation of European bases (such as Ramstein and Cyprus) in the logistical operations of the attack.
3. Trump’s Conditions: “The Instrument of Surrender”
The disclosure of the details regarding US demands (halting enrichment, restricting missiles, ceasing support for proxies) confirms our previous assessment: these are conditions for “radical regime behavior change” or its overthrow.
* The Iranian Response: Viewing the attack as an “existential threat” and responding with “maximum force” indicates that Tehran will utilize all its assets (Hezbollah, Ansar Allah, the PMF) from the very first moment, rather than waiting for a gradual escalation.
4. The New York Times Report: Failure of Negotiations
The newspaper’s confirmation that “negotiations have made no progress” closes the door on any “last-minute deal.”
* The Result: Trump is now left with his only remaining option: executing his threat of an attack “worse than the previous one.”
Field Summary:
We are living through the “final nights” before the expiration of the Jask NOTAM deadline (Thursday).
* Politically: The West (US + Europe) has united against Iran.
* Militarily: Iran has withdrawn training forces from coastal defense zones.
* Diplomatically: The path of negotiation is completely blocked.
Assessment:
The expiration of the Jask NOTAM tomorrow, Thursday (January 29), will be the “Hour of Truth.” If it is not extended, the airspace will be open for the US Armada to commence operations, supported by international legitimacy (the European decision) and a total absence of diplomatic solutions.
Thursday and Friday are the decisive days.
Continue ReadingIran “Refuses to Capitulate” and Europe Designates the IRGC as “Terrorist”… War Has Become an “Existential Choice” for Both Sides.
— Talal NahleUpdated Strategic Report (Wednesday Night – January 28):
Based on the latest NOTAM file (21:01 UTC), which confirmed the removal of… pic.twitter.com/KgCFIFFhmz— IntelSky (@Intel_Sky) January 28, 2026