by Blaise Malley at Responsible Statecraft
The intelligence leaks that have rocked Washington for the last week included documents that revealed the Biden administration’s internal stance on the future of the war in Ukraine, and disclosed what could be more serious disagreement between the the United States and Ukraine than their public stances would indicate.
One leaked document, reported by The Washington Post on Monday, said that given challenges confronting the Ukrainian military, its planned counteroffensive could come up “well short” of its original goals. The most likely outcome, according to the top secret document, is that Kyiv makes only “modest territorial gains.”
Another document, from the Defense Intelligence Agency assesses that the war “is expected to bleed into 2024 with neither side securing victory yet both refusing to negotiate an end to the conflict,” even if Ukraine manages to win back “significant” territory in upcoming months, according to another Post report.
Ukrainian officials were reportedly upset with the assessment, insisting that it continued a pattern of underestimating Kyiv’s military. “The same people who said Kyiv would fall in three days are now leaking harmful and equally ridiculous information ahead of an offensive critically important for the entire free world,” said a person in regular contact with senior officials in Kyiv, according to Politico’s NatSec Daily newsletter. That person went on to say that the leak gives officials “grounds for suspicion” concerning Washington’s commitment to the Ukrainian cause.
Politico reported that the leaks and subsequent response…
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