by Larry Johnson at A Son of the New American Revolution
If you are looking for sound military analysis of the situation on the ground in Ukraine set aside an hour or so and watch Gonzalo Lira’s interview of Scott Ritter. Scott has the best grasp of the military strategy and tactics at play in the Donbas.
I want to focus on the Ukrainian’s desperate attempt to stage horrific attacks to gin up Western hatred of Russia. This has been the most “effective” component of Ukraine’s failing effort to fight Russia. But I put “effective” in quotes because the propaganda pushed about Bucha and the missile attack on Kramatorsk has not compelled NATO to intervene with ground and air forces inside Ukraine. The big show of sending tanks, outdated air defense systems and weapons to Ukraine is not changing the tactical situation on the ground. It just makes us feel better.
Unless NATO adopts the suicidal tactic of entering the battle on the ground, the United States and NATO will watch helplessly over the coming weeks (and possibly months) as the Ukrainian military capability bleeds out. At the same time the Ukraine economic situation will grow worse. What do I mean? Scarce fuel, limited hospital care and food shortages. The only avenue for imports and exports is over the western border with Poland. Assuming that some imports and exports could find their way over that border, it represents only a fraction of what Ukraine moved through its southern ports on the Black Sea. Normal life in Ukraine is kaput.
Scott Ritter correctly observes that the Ukrainian army pinned down in the east (i.e. Donbas) are entrenched in underground bunkers. While this offers the Ukrainian soldiers some measure of protection, it also means that these soldiers are not mobile and lack the armor and other motorized vehicles to mount a counter-offensive. In fact, any column of trucks or tanks is highly vulnerable to attack from Russian air assets, artillery and cruise missiles and would likely be quickly eradicated.
While the political class in Washington is engorged with desire…
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