“Russia is, of course, a strategic partner. How many hours would it take for you to travel to Washington? How long would it take to go to Moscow?” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan asked me almost two years ago in a gathering. “We have joint strategic investments, from pipelines to nuclear reactors. We have joint interests in the defence industry, increasing bilateral trade and tourism, so on and so forth.”
Back then marked a high point in relations between Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. They enjoyed frequent phone calls to shape a strategy for both countries. At one point, they reached a level of trust in which Putin would personally present special reports to Erdogan, for his eyes only.
The erosion of trust between Erdogan and Putin has played an important role in turning the two countries against each other
It wasn’t unusual for Turkey and Russia to enjoy friendly relations, as they had a tendency for decades to “agree to disagree” on many issues. But the burgeoning relationship between Erdogan and Putin was exceptional, especially considering that they had been at each other’s throats in 2015 after Turkey downed a Russian jet.
Erdogan was disillusioned with the West and looking for a more independent foreign policy after the 2016 coup attempt, which he was certain was backed by the West. With Putin, Erdogan had joint interests, such as the Syria crisis, where both countries were leveraging their militaries to restrict the US presence in support of Syrian Kurds. Moscow was working to save the Syrian regime while gradually seizing control of territory, and the US had been an obstacle.
For Ankara, the US-backed Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) was an existential threat along its border, and it was clear that Syria’s opposition was no longer in a position to win the civil war. A new strategy was needed to keep the refugee crisis at bay, while preventing the emergence of a “PKK state” along the entire northern border…
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