by Talal Nahle via IntelSky at X
Updated Strategic Report (Thursday Evening – January 29):
Based on the latest NOTAM file (17:34 UTC), which confirms that the Bushehr NOTAM (A0271/26) remains active for Saturday, and combined with Russia’s “dire” warning regarding a potential nuclear catastrophe, it is evident that Moscow has realized that “the strike is imminent.”
Here is a precise analysis of the landscape three hours prior to the expiration of the Jask NOTAM:
1. The Russian Warning (Likhachev): A “Chernobyl” in Bushehr
The statement by the head of Rosatom warning of a disaster on the scale of Chernobyl is not merely a diplomatic expression of concern.
* The NOTAM Connection: Russia is specifically warning about “Bushehr.” This aligns 100% with the Iranian firing NOTAM (A0271/26) which closes the airspace over Bushehr this coming Saturday.
* The Implication: The Russians know that Bushehr is a primary target in Trump’s “target bank.” Their discussion regarding “preparations to evacuate Russian experts” implies they have received signals that the facility’s diplomatic immunity has been lifted.
* The Danger: If Trump strikes Bushehr, the radioactive cloud will cover the entire Gulf. This is precisely why the WC-135 “Nuke Sniffer” aircraft arrived in the region today.
2. Iranian Diplomacy (Araghchi): The Final Race
The Iranian Foreign Minister’s communications and his visit to Turkey tomorrow (Friday) represent an attempt to engage with Turkish mediation to salvage the situation.
* Timing: The visit is scheduled for Friday (tomorrow), falling exactly within the “time void” between the expiration of the Jask NOTAM (tonight) and the activation of the Bushehr NOTAM (Saturday).
* Objective: Turkey is attempting to save the situation because Ankara fully realizes that the fall of Iran means its turn will follow.
Operational Summary:
* Russia: Packing bags (radiation-proof) in Bushehr.
* Turkey: Summoning Iran’s Foreign Minister to Ankara in a last-ditch effort to salvage the situation.
Assessment:
Russia’s warning has shifted the crisis from a “conventional war” to an “existential war.” The Russians do not threaten evacuation unless intelligence confirms the reactor is set to be bombed. What is unfolding now is an attempt to either avert the war or prepare for it.
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Trump’s Security Meeting Precedes the “20:30 Moment”… and the “Nuclear Sniffer” in Britain Awaits the Go-Ahead.
— Talal Nahle
Updated Strategic Report (Thursday Afternoon – January 29):
Based on the latest NOTAM file (16:19 UTC), which confirms a “frightening stagnation” just 4 hours before the expiration of the Jask NOTAM, and combining this with the arrival of the “Nuclear Sniffer” (COBRA31) and the diversion of F-35 fighters from the Venezuelan theater, we are witnessing the “final touches.”
Here is a precise analysis of the landscape prior to the Presidential Meeting:
1. NOTAM (A0358/26): The Countdown (4 Hours Remaining)
* Status: The NOTAM closing the “Jask” area (the entry gate) remains active and expires tonight at 20:30 UTC.
* The Decision: Trump’s security meeting, set to convene “shortly,” is the meeting that will decide the fate of this NOTAM.
* Note: If the meeting concludes without an announcement, this could signify the “Green Light” for the attack.
2. The “Nuclear Sniffer” (COBRA31): Positioning at the “Start Point”
The arrival of the RC-135W (Constant Phoenix)*—bearing the call sign COBRA31—into British airspace is the most critical nuclear indicator.
* The Leap: Its presence in Britain (Mildenhall) places it within a 5-6 hour flight range of Iran. This implies it will launch immediately once the bombardment begins, aiming to arrive over Iran with the “second wave of destruction” to measure radiation levels resulting from strikes on reactors.
3. Withdrawing F-35s from Venezuela: “Global Alert”
The diversion of F-35A fighters from Puerto Rico (originally assigned to the Venezuela front) to Morón Air Base in Spain, and subsequently to the Middle East, means one thing: “It is now Iran’s turn.”
* Washington is withdrawing forces from all secondary fronts to concentrate “Mass Firepower” on Iran. This is a maneuver not seen in skirmishes, but in total war.
4. The Fleet (Destroyer Screen): “The Steel Wall”
The addition of the destroyer USS Delbert D. Black to the extensive list:
* USS Abraham Lincoln (Aircraft Carrier)
* USS Spruance
* USS Murphy
* USS Frank E. Petersen
* USS McFaul
* USS Mitscher
* USS Canberra
* USS Tulsa
* USS Santa Barbara
…signifies the completion of the “Defensive Wall” around the carrier Lincoln.
* The Mission: These destroyers will form a “protective ring” to intercept thousands of Iranian drones and missiles.
Field Summary:
* The Hour: 20:30 UTC is the decisive moment.
* The Meeting: Trump is reviewing the “Target List,” “Weather Conditions,” and “Ally Readiness” before giving the order.
* The NOTAM: Still closed, but taking its final breaths.
Assessment:
Trump’s security meeting taking place now is not for “discussion”; it is a “War Council” to make the final decision regarding what happens after 20:30 UTC.
Let us watch closely.
