by Simplicus at Simplicus the Thinker
Because I’m a stickler for getting to the root of things, and will always follow up on important issues as they develop, I wanted to start with a continuation of a previous line. In one of the last reports we talked about the potential mobilizations on both sides, troop numbers, and how that relates to upcoming conflict developments in the medium-term future.
I related how there had been new indication that Russia’s newly recruited 300k force would be used to rotate the previously mobilized troops from September-October of 2022.
However State Duma Chairman Andrey Kartapolov has now put speculation to rest with a new decree which states directly that previously mobilized troops will not be “demobilized” as I had thought, and that their term will end only when the SMO itself ends:
“They will return home after completing a special military operation. No rotation is provided. They are entitled to leave for every six months served, and they now go on these vacations, ” the deputy said.
However, they are still stating that the newly recruited will be used for ongoing rotations of the normal variety, like wounded people, etc., but simply that the 300k mobilized from last year will not be mass demobilized until the war is over.
This is good news as it means Russia is building up its forces. Interestingly, on this topic, General Milley made a new statement where he referenced that Russia has 200k or “200k plus” troops in Ukraine. Once again we recall that I’ve repeatedly hammered the point that Russia is using far less troops than people were led to believe. If they have only 200k+ in Ukraine now after mass mobilizations and hundreds of thousands of new enlistments, imagine what they had at the very beginning? That’s why I stand by my reporting of Russia only using 70-80k men in the opening stages of the SMO, and not much more than that even by the time of the first year anniversary. Though I should mention that I believe Russia has total 350-450k forces as part of the SMO, but they are not necessarily all in Ukraine or on the frontlines, as a portion is being used for rotation purposes, etc.
Ultimately though there may be some deliberate deception at play from the Russian Duma as they may not want to completely reveal their future war plans. So for all we know they may be building those newly recruited for a huge strike fist while for now downplaying them as reserves of a sort.
Moving on, the other big subject for which we have an update is Ukrainian losses. Yesterday’s bombshell came from the head of Poltava region military commissariat:…
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