by Observer R at A Son of the New American Revolution
Two important events took place recently with regard to Ukraine and Taiwan. President Biden spoke about the Ukraine situation and Secretary of State Blinken visited China and held important meetings with Chinese leaders. Initial reports indicated that the United States (US) was trying to dial back tensions and open the door to greater diplomatic negotiations. This was a step back from the more confrontational position the US has recently held, and one view is that the US “blinked” after seeing that the hardline approach was not achieving the desired results. Another viewpoint is that the two episodes were an aberration and not likely to have lasting effects. Blinken’s visit generated considerable negative response and Biden blew a hole in the Chinese negotiations by his comments.
In the case of Ukraine, President Biden reversed himself again, stating that Ukraine would have to go through the regular seven-step procedure in order to become a member of NATO. This is a very time-consuming process and one of the steps is to get a lid on corruption in the country. Since Ukraine is alleged to be one of the most corrupt countries in the world, the chances of fixing that problem are near zero. In effect then, Biden’s decision means that the chances of Ukraine joining NATO anytime soon are also near zero. Therefore, the US move more or less amounts to acquiescing to Russia’s demand that Ukraine not join NATO. The US action is a veto on the NATO Secretary General’s call for a speedy membership for Ukraine. It undercuts the German Foreign Minister’s newly issued national security strategy, as well as efforts to provide new weapons to Ukraine, such as the US F-16 fighter planes. Biden’s action, unless reversed yet again, will require re-tooling the agenda for the NATO meeting in Vilnius in July. The “narrative” put out by the West concerning the Ukraine War will also need to be adjusted, as this action by Biden may be a first step in taking the off-ramp from the war. However, NATO officials and European politicians are still calling for Ukraine to join NATO, and more weapons and money are being sent to Ukraine, so the impact of Biden’s statement is in doubt. It may have been just another gaffe by the President.
The latest fiasco in the Ukraine War is the reported attempt by the head of the Wagner mercenary group to march on Moscow. The latest reports are that Belarus was able to negotiate a ceasefire, that the Wagner forces have been told to return to their barracks and that the Wagner leader will go to exile in Belarus. It remains to be seen what the real facts are and to evaluate their impact on the conduct of the war.
In the case of Taiwan,…
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